A new report has warned that African countries risk locking themselves into more than 4 billion dollars in costly waste-to-energy incineration projects that could undermine recycling, threaten livelihoods and worsen pollution.

The report, released on Thursday by the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives (GAIA), was titled “Africa’s Waste Crisis Is Attracting the Wrong Solution.”

The study identified 15 incineration projects and proposals across 10 African countries, including Nigeria, with an estimated combined power-generation capacity of between 520 and 550 megawatts.

Of the projects tracked in 2026, the study said only one, the Reppie plant in Ethiopia, was operational, while two were under construction, and 12 remained at various stages of planning, approval, financing or proposal.

GAIA’s report argued that incineration was poorly suited to the composition of waste generated in many African cities.

This, the study said, could divert public resources from less costly, more inclusive approaches centred on waste prevention, composting, reuse and recycling.

“The real choice is not between incineration and dumping, but between incineration and investing in a comprehensive zero waste system,” the report said.

It noted that only 55 per cent of municipal solid waste generated across Africa was collected, while just four per cent was recycled, leaving many cities struggling with open dumping, burning and overstretched waste-management systems.

The report said governments facing pressure to address overflowing dumpsites were increasingly being presented with incineration as a dual-purpose solution capable of disposing of waste and generating electricity.

It, however, warned that the technology could create long-term financial obligations while generating air pollutants and toxic residues requiring further disposal.

According to the report, waste generated in many African cities contains high levels of organic matter and moisture, making it less suitable for combustion than the drier, more recyclable waste streams common in high-income countries.

It cited data indicating that more than 62.5 per cent of solid waste generated in East Africa was organic, arguing that composting and organic-material recovery were better suited to such waste.

The report also cited a United Nations Environment Programme assessment that found incineration particularly inappropriate for low- and middle-income countries.

This, it noted, was because the assessment found the incineration could be more expensive both as a waste-management method and as a means of generating electricity than available alternatives.

GAIA warned that incinerators typically required hundreds of millions of dollars to construct and take between 20 and 30 years to pay off, creating pressure to maintain a continuous supply of combustible waste.

Such arrangements, it argued, could discourage waste reduction, reuse, recycling and composting over the lifespan of the infrastructure.

The report further raised concerns about the potential effects on informal waste pickers, whose livelihoods depend on collecting and recovering recyclable materials such as plastics, paper and cardboard.

It cited interviews with waste pickers around Addis Ababa’s Koshe dumpsite, which reportedly found that earnings had declined by 50 per cent following the introduction of the Reppie incinerator, forcing some workers to resort to street begging.

GAIA said investment in incineration could instead, support source-separated waste collection, composting, material-recovery facilities and formal integration of waste pickers into municipal waste-management systems.

The report estimated that waste pickers collected, sorted and recycled between 15 and 20 per cent of the waste produced in Africa, and urged governments to protect their livelihoods through fair pay, safer working conditions and recognition of their right to organise.

It also highlighted the Pomona waste-to-energy project in Harare, Zimbabwe, as an example of concerns surrounding procurement, transparency and long-term municipal liabilities.

According to the report, Harare City Council granted a 30-year concession valued at between 300 million dollars and 350 million dollars to Geogenix BV without a competitive tender process or an independent feasibility study.

The report said the council paid the company approximately 22,000 dollars to 40,000 dollars  daily to dispose of waste at the Pomona site, which the city owned and had previously managed at no cost.

It added that civil society organisations had challenged the agreement in court, raising concerns about transparency and accountability.

GAIA called on African governments to suspend new incineration agreements until independent assessments had been conducted, with civil society participation.

It also recommended mandatory disclosure of financing arrangements, waste-supply contracts and environmental impact assessments before such projects were approved.

The report urged governments and development finance institutions to prioritise waste prevention, separation at source, composting, recycling and organic-waste recovery, while strengthening producer-responsibility policies.

According to it, these measures will better support the African Union’s Agenda 2063 target of recycling at least, 50 per cent of municipal waste.

GAIA concluded that African countries could avoid replicating polluting waste-management models adopted elsewhere by investing in systems tailored to local waste composition and development needs.