The World Bank has issued a stark warning that Nigeria’s hard-won gains in poverty reduction could reverse over the next five years. In its latest Africa’s Pulse report, released during the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington, DC, the Bank projects that Nigeria’s poverty rate will climb by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027, the largest increase among Sub-Saharan Africa’s resource-rich and fragile economies. Modest Growth, mounting vulnerabilities despite a modest uptick in non-oil activity in late 2024, Nigeria remains vulnerable to structural headwinds.
A slump in global oil prices, persistent inflation above 20 percent, and a naira that has depreciated sharply against the dollar have combined to squeeze household incomes. According to the report: “Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027.” This stands in contrast to non-resource-rich peers in the region—such as Kenya and Ethiopia—where robust agricultural exports and economic diversification are projected to cut poverty rates by nearly one percentage point over the same period.
With headline inflation still hovering above 22 percent and food inflation exceeding 30 percent in early 2025, many Nigerian households find their purchasing power eroding rapidly.
Imported staples, fuel, and pharmaceuticals have all become more expensive as the Central Bank of Nigeria struggles to defend the naira.
The report notes: “Persistent inflation erodes real incomes, particularly for the urban poor, who spend more than half of their earnings on food and energy.”
For families living on less than $2.15 per day (2017 PPP)—the international extreme-poverty line—such price shocks can mean the difference between sending children to school or skipping meals altogether.
Youth Unemployment and Informal Work

Exacerbating the crisis is Nigeria’s chronically high youth unemployment rate—estimated at over 30 percent—and widespread underemployment in the informal sector.
Millions of young Nigerians, unable to secure formal jobs or access credit, resort to precarious “side-hustles” or gig work. While these activities may generate nominal income, they rarely come with job security, benefits, or upward mobility.
Weak Social Safety Nets:
Nigeria’s social-protection footprint remains one of the region’s thinnest. Although programmes such as the National Social Investment Programme (NSIP) aim to support vulnerable households through cash transfers, their reach has been limited by targeting errors, outdated registries, and irregular funding.
The World Bank emphasises that scaling up well-targeted cash transfers and public-works schemes is critical to cushioning the poorest against economic shocks.