The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has urgently called for more investment to be put into the global upstream oil sector. They are warning that a cumulative $14.9 trillion will be needed from 2025 to 2050 to satisfy expected demand and avoid a potential energy crisis.

This investment figure, which totals $574 billion each year, represents the majority of the overall $18.2 trillion in oil-related investments that will be necessary over the next 25 years.

OPEC has estimated that an investment of $18.2 trillion will be crucial to meet global oil demand from 2025 to 2050, dismissing the idea of an upcoming peak in fossil fuel usage as mere “fantasy.” This information was shared in the organization’s most recent 2025 World Oil Outlook, which predicts an increase in oil demand from 103.7 million barrels per day in 2024 to 116.5 mb/d by 2045, eventually reaching about 123 mb/d by 2050. This shows an 18.6 percent growth over 26 years.

The report also highlighted the need for ongoing investments in various sectors of the industry to fulfill this demand.

Out of the total investment needed, upstream operations, which involve exploration and production, are expected to take the largest portion at $14.9 trillion, or $574 billion each year, as producers aim to increase supply. Midstream and downstream investments are projected to require $1.3 trillion and $2 trillion, respectively.

The report read, “Cumulative oil-related investment needs to meet projected demand are estimated at $18.2 trillion over the period from 2025 to 2050.

This figure slightly surpasses the expectations outlined in the WOO 2024. Even though the forecast period is a year shorter, this report has adjusted long-term oil demand upwards, resulting in a corresponding increase in liquids supply.

The total investment required for upstream activities makes up the majority of the needed capital expenditure, now estimated at $14.9 trillion, which breaks down to $574 billion each year. In comparison, the investment needs for downstream and midstream sectors are expected to be $2 trillion and $1.3 trillion, respectively.
OPEC Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, emphasized that ongoing investments are crucial for ensuring future energy security and affordability, particularly in the Global South.

“There is no peak oil demand in sight,” Al Ghais mentioned in the report’s introduction. “The push to quickly eliminate fossil fuels is unrealistic and overlooks the realities of energy security, affordability, and the socio-economic situations of billions who still lack basic energy access.”
The report points out key factors driving the rise in oil demand, such as population growth, urbanization, and the rise of energy-intensive sectors like artificial intelligence and cloud computing.
Global urbanization is expected to increase from 57 percent in 2024 to 68 percent by 2050, with developing areas, especially Africa and Asia, likely to lead this change. China’s urbanization is predicted to hit 80 percent, while India is expected to reach 53 percent, up from below 37 percent in 2024.

“Urbanization improves energy access and promotes industrial growth, particularly in economies still grappling with energy poverty,” the report noted. At present, North America (mainly the US and Canada) holds the largest share of upstream investment needs, nearly $250 billion annually, due to high development costs and a vital role in global liquids production.

As time goes on, the report shows that the responsibility will shift to OPEC and its partners according to the Declaration of Cooperation. It is anticipated that the DoC will grow its portion of global upstream investments from 25 percent in 2025 to 40 percent by 2050, with yearly funding rising from $120 billion to almost $240 billion.

During the same period, other non-OPEC producers (not including the U.S. and Canada) are expected to increase their spending from $90 billion to just below $150 billion each year.

These predictions are very different from those made by the International Energy Agency, which stated that global oil demand will reach its peak before 2030 as clean energy technologies become more popular.

However, Al Ghais has criticized these forecasts, calling them politically motivated and disconnected from the energy issues facing developing countries.

“Many of the net-zero emission deadlines don’t think about how realistic they are or how they would affect developing countries. It has become more and more clear that the idea of quickly getting rid of oil and gas is not only unrealistic but also just a fantasy,” he said.

As global investments increasingly focus on oil-rich regions, Nigeria is strategically positioning itself as an important player in the evolving energy sector.